Sandton – Veteran economist and researcher Duma Gqubule has called for a fundamental rethink of how South Africa measures black ownership and economic transformation, arguing that many of the statistics used in public debate may not accurately reflect the actual value transferred to black shareholders.
Gqubule presented his latest research report at the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) this week during an event attended by key figures in South Africa’s transformation landscape, including B-BBEE Commissioner Tshediso Matona, National Empowerment Fund (NEF) CEO Mziwabantu Dayimani, Black Management Forum (BMF) President Mpho Motsei, BMF executive Monde Ndlovu and ASI Group Marketing Director Tishalan Pillay.
The report, which focuses on black ownership within the Top 60 JSE-listed companies, seeks to provide what Gqubule describes as a more accurate assessment of ownership transformation after three decades of democracy. One of the report’s central arguments is that South Africa’s transformation debate has often relied on ownership statistics that do not distinguish between gross transaction values and the actual net value received by black shareholders. Gqubule challenged a long-standing narrative that R1 trillion had been transferred to 100 politically connected individuals through empowerment transactions by 2008. According to his analysis, such a claim would imply that each individual received approximately R10 billion, a conclusion he argues is not supported by available transaction data.
Drawing on EY and DealMakers databases, the report estimates that BEE transactions between 1994 and 2008 amounted to approximately R346 billion. However, Gqubule cautioned that even this figure may overstate actual wealth creation because many transactions were debt-funded and did not necessarily translate into equivalent net value for beneficiaries. The report also raises concerns about the way black ownership is measured in the mining sector. Gqubule argued that the “once empowered, always empowered” principle has undermined the objectives of transformation by allowing companies to continue receiving recognition for historical empowerment transactions even after ownership structures have changed.
He further argued that mining remains one of the few sectors without a rigorous independent verification system comparable to those used under the Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment framework.
According to the research, a major weakness in current measurement systems is the absence of mechanisms that track whether empowerment transactions ultimately create sustainable net value for black shareholders. The report contends that signing an empowerment transaction should not be viewed as the end goal, but rather as the beginning of a longer process of value creation and ownership consolidation.The findings suggest that a significant portion of measurable black ownership remains concentrated in the mining and financial services sectors. The report estimates black ownership in the finance sector at approximately R124.6 billion and in the mining sector at approximately R72.5 billion. Together, these sectors account for roughly R197 billion of the estimated R255.2 billion in black ownership identified within the Top 60 JSE-listed companies.
The report also highlights several companies that make substantial contributions to black ownership market capitalisation, including FirstRand, Sanlam, Capitec, African Rainbow Minerals and Exxaro.
Research presented during the launch indicates that South Africa has recorded more than 1,000 BEE-related transactions since 1994, with a combined transaction value approaching R700 billion. These transactions were grouped into three distinct phases spanning the period from 1994 to 2024. Beyond the numbers, the report calls for significant reforms to ownership measurement systems. Among its recommendations are closer alignment between sector charters and B-BBEE legislation, improved measurement of effective ownership, greater transparency in annual reporting and the development of scorecards that separately measure current ownership and the legacy impact of previous empowerment transactions.
The report is likely to stimulate renewed debate about how South Africa measures economic transformation and whether current methodologies provide an accurate picture of ownership in the economy.While discussions about transformation often focus on whether BEE has succeeded or failed, Gqubule’s research raises a different question: Has South Africa been measuring transformation correctly in the first place? As policymakers, business leaders and transformation practitioners continue to grapple with the country’s economic challenges, the debate sparked by this report may prove to be one of the most important conversations in South Africa’s transformation journey.
