Here we are in the final quarter of 2024, and as December looms, the big question is: what will we be paying for food, clothing, and gifts this holiday season? With economic updates from Stats SA in October, let’s explore whether this festive season will break the bank—or leave us with a little extra cheer. Should we brace ourselves for higher costs, or is a more affordable December on the horizon?
According to Stats SA’s October economic releases, there are mixed signals about where our economy is headed. On the positive side, mining and retail trade have shown growth, with retail sales up by a robust 3.2% year-on-year. But it’s not all good news. Manufacturing activity took a hit, slipping by 1.2% due to weakened automotive and iron sectors, hinting that certain goods might be pricier this holiday season.
Inflation is offering a small reprieve, with the annual consumer inflation rate at its lowest since early 2021. This cooling off, now at 3.8%, has been largely driven by lower fuel costs. In fact, transport entered deflationary territory, a rarity for South Africa, which means we’re likely to see stable, if not slightly reduced, petrol prices—an early Christmas gift for those planning road trips! But for food and beverages, inflation remains high, especially for fresh produce like vegetables and fruits. If you’re hosting the holiday feast this year, budget a little extra for that.
The latest monthly indicators
Nationally, mining activity increased by a marginal 0,3% year-on-year in August. Manganese ore, platinum group metals and chromium ore were the largest drivers of growth. Nickel and copper also recorded a good month.
Retail trade was also positive, rising by 3,2% year-on-year. Six of the seven retail groups registered robust results, with general dealers driving much of the upward momentum.
On the downside, manufacturing was weaker by 1,2%, with five of the ten manufacturing divisions recording a decline in activity. The automotive and iron, steel & machinery divisions were the largest drags on overall growth.
Other sectors that recorded weaker year-on-year results in August include wholesale trade, motor trade, freight (both rail and road) and road passenger transport (Figure 1).
Consumer inflation records a fourth consecutive decline
Annual consumer inflation cooled further in September to 3,8%, the lowest rate since March 2021 (3,2%). Transport entered deflationary territory, mainly dragged lower by softer fuel prices.
Annual food & non-alcoholic beverages inflation was more stubborn, unchanged from August. Vegetables, fruit, cold beverages and fish recorded higher inflation rates in September, while lower annual rates were recorded for hot beverages; meat; bread & cereals; sugar, sweets & desserts; and oils & fats.
Public-sector infrastructure spending up for a second straight year
Stats SA also publishes data on capital expenditure from South Africa’s 749 public-sector institutions, which includes public corporations; national, provincial and local government; extra-budgetary accounts and funds; and higher education institutions. The latest data from 2023 shows public-sector capital spending rising for a second consecutive year to R233 billion, driven mainly by public corporations. Eskom was the largest spender, accounting for R39 billion (or 17% of the total).
Despite the two-year upswing, public-sector capital expenditure remains below the 2016 peak of R283 billion.
What to look forward to in November
The next round of employment and unemployment figures, covering the third quarter of the year, are due for release on 12 November. Annual financial statistics for the private sector and consolidated financial statistics for general government will be published on 28 November.
Interested to know more? Keep up to date with our publication schedule here. For a comprehensive list of products and releases, download our catalogue here. For a regular update of indicators and infographics, visit our data story feed and download the latest edition of the Stats Biz newsletter. Will we find more cheer—or challenge—waiting for us under the tree? Only time will tell, but with a bit of planning and patience, we might just have the festive season we’re hoping for.